Serie A · Matchweek 14
Venezia
VEN
Sassuolo
SAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia44%
Draw26%
Sassuolo30%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.32
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
43%Territory37%
14%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Venezia, 3 for Sassuolo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.