Serie A · Matchweek 14
Napoli
NAP
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli67%
Draw20%
Lecce12%
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.79
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession44%
49%Territory34%
22%From set plays61%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Napoli, 3 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.