Serie A · Matchweek 14
Lazio
LAZ
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio42%
Draw29%
Atalanta29%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.11
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
41%Territory42%
21%From set plays9%
0.15Chance quality0.07
3.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lazio, 3 for Atalanta. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.