Serie A · Matchweek 14
Juventus
JUV
Udinese
UDI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Juventus71%
Draw19%
Udinese10%
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.68
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–013.7%
- 1–013.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession55%
44%Territory46%
46%From set plays38%
0.08Chance quality0.06
3.3%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Juventus, 5 for Udinese.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 98 matches, not the full season.