Serie A · Matchweek 14
Genoa
GEN
Torino
TOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa39%
Draw30%
Torino31%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.09
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
34%Territory33%
14%From set plays18%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Torino.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.