Serie A · Matchweek 14
Fiorentina
FIO
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina41%
Draw27%
Cagliari32%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.31
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession44%
39%Territory32%
22%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fiorentina, 4 for Cagliari.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 99 matches, not the full season.