Serie A · Matchweek 14
Fiorentina
FIO
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina54%
Draw24%
Cagliari22%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.09
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cagliari get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession39%
49%Territory31%
11%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 3 for Cagliari. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.