Serie A · Matchweek 14
Milan
MIL
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan65%
Draw22%
Parma13%
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.74
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Parma will not mind.
58%Possession41%
36%Territory27%
22%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.09
3.9%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Milan, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.