Serie A · Matchweek 13
Venezia
VEN
Bologna
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia29%
Draw28%
Bologna44%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.47
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession54%
40%Territory40%
18%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.07
5.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Venezia, 3 for Bologna. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Bologna
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.