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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Serie A · Matchweek 13

Udinese

UDI

Fiorentina

FIO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Udinese33%
Draw26%
Fiorentina42%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.63

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 0–18.0%
  • 2–17.7%
  • 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

41%Possession45%
35%Territory49%
18%From set plays11%
0.11Chance quality0.13
8.8%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Udinese, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.