Serie A · Matchweek 13
Sassuolo
SAS
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo32%
Draw27%
Napoli41%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.52
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession46%
40%Territory49%
13%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.