Serie A · Matchweek 13
Lecce
LEC
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce30%
Draw25%
Atalanta45%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.69
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession44%
41%Territory39%
31%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lecce, 4 for Atalanta.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.