Serie A · Matchweek 13
Lecce
LEC
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce23%
Draw27%
Atalanta51%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.59
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession46%
34%Territory42%
61%From set plays9%
0.11Chance quality0.07
5.6%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lecce, 3 for Atalanta. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.