Serie A · Matchweek 13
Cagliari
CAG
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari27%
Draw27%
Milan46%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.51
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Cagliari will not mind.
39%Possession58%
31%Territory36%
29%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cagliari, 3 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.