Serie A · Matchweek 13
Roma
ROM
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma70%
Draw18%
Monza12%
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.87
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession55%
48%Territory45%
8%From set plays16%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Roma, 3 for Monza. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.