Serie A · Matchweek 12
Lazio
LAZ
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio63%
Draw23%
Lecce14%
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.77
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession44%
41%Territory34%
21%From set plays61%
0.15Chance quality0.11
3.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lazio, 3 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.