Serie A · Matchweek 12
Juventus
JUV
Venezia
VEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Juventus75%
Draw16%
Venezia9%
Expected goals
2.41 – 0.73
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession55%
58%Territory40%
30%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.09
3.0%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Juventus, 3 for Venezia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Juventus
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.