Serie A · Matchweek 12
Milan
MIL
Frosinone
FRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan57%
Draw22%
Frosinone21%
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.30
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession51%
31%Territory48%
24%From set plays16%
0.18Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Milan, 4 for Frosinone.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.