Serie A · Matchweek 11
Torino
TOR
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Torino47%
Draw27%
Lecce26%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.14
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession42%
31%Territory41%
25%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Torino, 4 for Lecce.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.