Serie A · Matchweek 11
Parma
PAR
Bologna
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma27%
Draw29%
Bologna43%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.34
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.9%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
36%Possession43%
33%Territory39%
34%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.17
7.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Parma, 4 for Bologna.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Parma
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.