Serie A · Matchweek 11
Napoli
NAP
Lazio
LAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli45%
Draw28%
Lazio27%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.10
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–09.0%
- 0–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
49%Territory41%
22%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.15
4.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Napoli, 3 for Lazio. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.