Serie A · Matchweek 11
Napoli
NAP
Lazio
LAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli40%
Draw29%
Lazio31%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.11
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession61%
37%Territory49%
28%From set plays20%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Napoli, 4 for Lazio.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.