Serie A · Matchweek 11
Monza
MON
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza29%
Draw24%
Atalanta47%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.86
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession44%
37%Territory39%
22%From set plays15%
0.16Chance quality0.13
4.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Monza, 4 for Atalanta.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.