Serie A · Matchweek 11
Genoa
GEN
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa26%
Draw27%
Milan47%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.55
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Genoa will not mind.
45%Possession58%
31%Territory36%
23%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.08
4.2%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genoa, 3 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.