Serie A · Matchweek 11
Genoa
GEN
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa25%
Draw27%
Milan48%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.55
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Genoa will not mind.
41%Possession56%
34%Territory31%
14%From set plays24%
0.07Chance quality0.18
6.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Milan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.