Serie A · Matchweek 11
Cagliari
CAG
Frosinone
FRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari42%
Draw27%
Frosinone31%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession45%
31%Territory44%
29%From set plays38%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cagliari, 3 for Frosinone. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Frosinone
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.