Serie A · Matchweek 11
Cagliari
CAG
Frosinone
FRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari38%
Draw26%
Frosinone37%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.54
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession51%
32%Territory48%
19%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cagliari, 4 for Frosinone.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.