Serie A · Matchweek 10
Sassuolo
SAS
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo37%
Draw26%
Fiorentina37%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.52
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession45%
40%Territory49%
13%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.