Serie A · Matchweek 10
Lecce
LEC
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce32%
Draw29%
Genoa39%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.32
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession45%
34%Territory31%
61%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lecce, 3 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.