Serie A · Matchweek 10
Lazio
LAZ
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio53%
Draw27%
Cagliari21%
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.92
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lazio will have the ball; Cagliari will not mind.
47%Possession39%
41%Territory31%
21%From set plays29%
0.15Chance quality0.13
3.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lazio, 3 for Cagliari. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.