Serie A · Matchweek 10
Atalanta
ATA
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta60%
Draw24%
Parma16%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.79
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.5%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Parma get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession41%
42%Territory27%
9%From set plays27%
0.07Chance quality0.09
4.8%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atalanta, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.