Serie A · Matchweek 10
Atalanta
ATA
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta61%
Draw23%
Parma16%
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.91
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Parma get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession42%
39%Territory36%
15%From set plays34%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atalanta, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Parma
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.