Serie A · Matchweek 10
Milan
MIL
Inter
INT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan29%
Draw24%
Inter46%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.81
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession65%
36%Territory48%
22%From set plays29%
0.08Chance quality0.12
3.9%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Milan, 3 for Inter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.