Serie A · Matchweek 9
Sassuolo
SAS
Lazio
LAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo35%
Draw28%
Lazio37%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.35
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession47%
40%Territory41%
13%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.15
5.0%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Lazio. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.