Serie A · Matchweek 9
Parma
PAR
Udinese
UDI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma32%
Draw29%
Udinese39%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.33
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession41%
27%Territory35%
27%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.11
6.1%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Parma, 3 for Udinese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.