Serie A · Matchweek 9
Monza
MON
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza29%
Draw26%
Napoli44%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.60
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Monza will have the ball; Napoli will not mind.
55%Possession46%
45%Territory49%
16%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monza, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.