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Serie A · Matchweek 9

Frosinone

FRO

Lecce

LEC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Frosinone53%
Draw25%
Lecce22%

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.04

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1011.4%
  • 1111.3%
  • 219.8%
  • 209.1%
  • 007.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession44%
44%Territory34%
38%From set plays61%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Frosinone, 3 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.