Serie A · Matchweek 9
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina42%
Draw26%
Atalanta31%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.32
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession46%
49%Territory42%
11%From set plays9%
0.13Chance quality0.07
5.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 3 for Atalanta. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.