Serie A · Matchweek 9
Milan
MIL
Bologna
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan50%
Draw27%
Bologna23%
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.99
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession54%
36%Territory40%
22%From set plays9%
0.08Chance quality0.07
3.9%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Milan, 3 for Bologna. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Bologna
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.