Serie A · Matchweek 7
Udinese
UDI
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Udinese54%
Draw25%
Lecce22%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.04
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession44%
35%Territory34%
18%From set plays61%
0.11Chance quality0.11
8.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Udinese, 3 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.