Serie A · Matchweek 6
Genoa
GEN
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa31%
Draw27%
Fiorentina42%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.54
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession45%
31%Territory49%
23%From set plays11%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genoa, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.