Serie A · Matchweek 5
Udinese
UDI
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Udinese43%
Draw27%
Cagliari30%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.24
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession39%
35%Territory31%
18%From set plays29%
0.11Chance quality0.13
8.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Udinese, 3 for Cagliari. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.