Serie A · Matchweek 5
Parma
PAR
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma32%
Draw30%
Genoa37%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.21
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession45%
27%Territory31%
27%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.08
6.1%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Parma, 3 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.