Serie A · Matchweek 5
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina38%
Draw27%
Napoli36%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.44
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession46%
49%Territory49%
11%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.