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Serie A · Matchweek 5

Bologna

BOL

Torino

TOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bologna49%
Draw27%
Torino24%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.04

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.1%
  • 1012.1%
  • 219.4%
  • 208.6%
  • 008.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession56%
40%Territory36%
9%From set plays12%
0.07Chance quality0.10
3.9%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bologna, 3 for Torino. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.