Serie A · Matchweek 5
Roma
ROM
Inter
INT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma43%
Draw25%
Inter33%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.48
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Inter get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession65%
48%Territory48%
8%From set plays29%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Roma, 3 for Inter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.