Superligaen · Matchweek 22
FC Midtjylland
FCM
AGF
AGF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Midtjylland49%
Draw25%
AGF26%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.25
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
41%Territory38%
26%From set plays18%
0.12Chance quality0.11
8.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Midtjylland, 3 for AGF. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 16 of 78 matches, not the full season.