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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Superligaen · Matchweek 18

Nordsjælland

NOR

AC Horsens

ACH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Nordsjælland53%
Draw23%
AC Horsens24%

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.36

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.6%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 2–06.9%
  • 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

AC Horsens get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession53%
40%Territory45%
22%From set plays44%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nordsjælland, 3 for AC Horsens. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 16 of 77 matches, not the full season.