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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Superligaen · Matchweek 17

AC Horsens

ACH

FC København

FCK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

AC Horsens33%
Draw26%
FC København41%

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.53

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

AC Horsens get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession48%
34%Territory32%
51%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AC Horsens, 4 for FC København. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 16 of 48 matches, not the full season.