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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Superligaen · Matchweek 16

FC København

FCK

FC Midtjylland

FCM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

FC København54%
Draw24%
FC Midtjylland22%

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.10

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.7%
  • 0–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

59%Possession50%
45%Territory41%
31%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC København, 3 for FC Midtjylland. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 77 matches, not the full season.