Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 28

HFX Wanderers FC

HFX

Supra du Québec

SUP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

HFX Wanderers FC50%
Draw25%
Supra du Québec25%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.19

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–07.9%
  • 0–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession52%
30%Territory39%
6.1%Directness7.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for HFX Wanderers FC, 3 for Supra du Québec. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.