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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Matchweek 23

Atlético Ottawa

ATL

Supra du Québec

SUP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Atlético Ottawa57%
Draw23%
Supra du Québec20%

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.13

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.1%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–08.7%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession52%
38%Territory39%
5.2%Directness7.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético Ottawa, 3 for Supra du Québec. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 85 matches, not the full season.