Allsvenskan · Matchweek 30
Elfsborg
ELF
GAIS
GAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Elfsborg38%
Draw32%
GAIS30%
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.98
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–013.9%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession51%
39%Territory45%
13%From set plays8%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.2%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elfsborg, 3 for GAIS. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.