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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 28

Kalmar FF

KAL

Sirius

SIR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kalmar FF29%
Draw24%
Sirius46%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.80

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.5%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 2–17.0%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sirius get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

49%Possession49%
41%Territory35%
15%From set plays52%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kalmar FF, 3 for Sirius. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 213 matches, not the full season.