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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 28

Brommapojkarna

BRO

Mjällby

MJL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brommapojkarna46%
Draw27%
Mjällby27%

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.11

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–011.5%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–08.4%
  • 0–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mjällby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

44%Possession42%
30%Territory36%
8%From set plays57%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brommapojkarna, 5 for Mjällby. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.