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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 27

Mjällby

MJL

Kalmar FF

KAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mjällby39%
Draw30%
Kalmar FF31%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.12

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.9%
  • 0–010.5%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mjällby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession49%
37%Territory41%
48%From set plays15%
0.08Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mjällby, 4 for Kalmar FF. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 213 matches, not the full season.